There are certain mistakes that many traders tend to make. I am going to write down the 10 most common so that you can avoid them. Just by avoiding these mistakes, you will become a much better trader than most of the retail traders around.
许多交易员往往会犯一些错误。我整理了10个最常见的,这样你就可以避免它们。只要避免这些错误,你就会成为一个比周围大多数散户交易者更好的交易者。
#1 Using indicators
#1使用指标
I said it at the beginning of this book – indicators are quite useless. Big institutions don’t care about them. Also, standard indicators work only with “price” and “time”. For that reason the information indicators provide are always delayed.
我在本书一开始就说过,指标是毫无用处的。大型机构并不关心这些。此外,标准指标只对“价格”和“时间”起作用。由于这个原因,信息指标提供的总是延迟。
Novice traders need to accept the fact that there isn’t a magic combination of indicators that would make good and profitable trading system.
新手交易者需要接受这样一个事实,即没有一个神奇的指标组合可以让交易系统变得更好、更有利可图。
#2 Martingale
第二名:马丁格尔策略
Martingale is a very risky money management system, which has its roots in casinos. The most common martingale strategy is to double your bet whenever you take a loss. So, for example, in roulette, you always bet on red. When you lose,you double your bet in the next game. If your initial bet is $10 and you lose, then the next bet is $20. If you lose again, your next bet is $40. Lose again and bet $80. Let’s say that you win the 4th bet this time, so you have won net $10 (-$10 -$20 -$40 +$80 = $10).
马丁格尔策略是一种非常危险的资金管理系统,起源于赌场。最常见的马丁格尔策略是无论什么时候你输了,你都要加倍下注。例如,在轮盘赌中,你总是赌红色。当你输了,你在下一局下注加倍。如果你的第一个赌注是10美元,你输了,那么下一个赌注是20美元。如果你再次输了,你下一个赌注是40美元。再输一次,赌80美元。假设你这次赢了第四次,你净赢了10美元(- 10美元- 20美元- 40美元+ 80美元= 10美元)。
No matter how bad you are, and no matter that you don’t have an edge, you will probably be winning for a while. However, sooner or later you will have a losing streak and you will lose everything. It may look like a really small chance that you take for example ten losers in a row, but the problem is that sooner or later it will happen. And when it does, you blow your account.
不管你有多坏,不管你没有优势,你可能会赢一阵子。然而,你迟早会有一连串的失败,你会失败吗?一切。这看起来像是一个非常小的机会,比如你拿连续十个失败者作为例子,但问题是这迟早会发生。一旦出现这种情况,你就毁了自己的账户。
Even in casinos, it happens from time to time, that one color in roulette appears 20 times in a row. If your initial bet were only $10, in the 20th round you would need $5,242,880 for another bet and you would be down $10,485,750. If you are curious, the world record is one color 32 times in a row!
即使在赌场,这种情况也时有发生,在轮盘赌中,一种颜色连续出现20次。如果你最初的赌注只有10美元,那么在第20轮中,你需要5242880美元来进行另一轮赌注,你就会输掉10485750美元。如果你好奇,世界纪录是一种颜色连续32次!
Usually, you will be able to tell on a first sight if somebody is using martingale. Below is an example of how a typical equity curve of a martingale strategy looks like:
通常情况下,你一眼就能看出某人是否在使用马丁格尔策略。下面是一个典型的马丁格尔策略型股票曲线的例子:
There are numerous martingale variations. People, for example, don’t close their losses so the equity (which is based on closed trades) doesn’t have the dips – except for the last dip which destroys their account. All martingale variations have one thing in common – they will all fail sooner or later. There is no way the martingale strategy works in the long run.
有许多马丁格尔策略变化。例如,人们不会结清他们的损失,因此股本(基于封闭交易)不会出现下跌——除非最后一次下跌摧毁了他们的账户。所有的马丁格尔策略变化都有一个共同点——它们迟早都会失败。从长远来看,马丁格尔策略是不可能奏效的。
#3 Believing too much in one trade
#3在一笔交易中过于自信
No matter how thorough your analysis is and no matter how good your trading level or trading idea appears to be, trading is always a game of probability. Even the best ideas and best-looking trades don’t always end in a profit. In fact, the best looking ones don’t usually go as planned, in my experience. For this reason, don’t believe and don’t risk too much on one trade, no matter how appealing it looks to you. It may look like the perfect trade but it can still surprise you and fail as any other level. Even the best levels can have for example 70 % win chance. 70 % is really good, but still, you don’t want to risk too much money on it.
无论你的分析多么透彻,无论你的交易水平或交易想法看起来多么好,交易总是一个概率游戏。即使是最好的想法和最好看的交易也不总是能带来利润。事实上,根据我的经验,最好看的那些通常不会按计划进行。出于这个原因,不要相信,也不要在一个交易上冒太大的风险,不管它看起来多么吸引你。它可能看起来像一个完美的交易,但它仍然可以惊喜你和失败作为任何其他水平。例如,即使是最好的水平也有70%的胜算。70%确实不错,但是,你也不想冒太大的风险。
#4 Using too big positions
4.使用过大的仓位
When you are using too big positions and everything goes fine, then you have excessive gains and it feels just great. However, when things turn bad and you take few losses, big positions will drive you crazy. I can guarantee you, that if you use for example 10% risk per trade and take 5 losses in a row, you won’t be able to think clearly anymore. You will most likely bend rules of your strategy and you will end up even in a bigger mess than you already were.
当你使用过大的头寸,一切都进展顺利时,你就会获得过多的收益,感觉非常棒。然而,当事情变得糟糕,你几乎没有损失,大的头寸会让你发疯。我可以向你保证,如果你使用10%的风险每个交易和采取连续5个损失,你将不能够想清楚了。你很可能会改变策略的规则,最终甚至会陷入比以前更糟糕的境地。
My advice is to use position sizes that you feel comfortable with even after you took a losing streak. If you don’t feel mentally fine and stable when losing, you need to lower the volumes of your positions.
我的建议是,即使在你连败之后,也要使用你觉得合适的仓位大小。如果你在输的时候感觉精神状态不佳,你需要降低你的仓位。
#5 Never being able to admit you were wrong
5.永远不承认自己错了
Every trader knows the feeling when the price goes past their S/R level and suddenly they are more and more in red numbers. It helps to have a predetermined SL and just automatically take it. There are, however, traders who don’t have predetermined SL and they sit, watch and hope. They are not able to admit that their super level doesn’t get respected. So, they sit and wait for a miracle to happen. Trades like that only rarely end up with the miracle. In most cases, such trades end up in a disaster.
每个交易者都知道当价格超过他们的s/r水平时的感觉,突然间他们的红色数字越来越多。它有助于有一个预先确定的SL和只是自动采取它。然而,有些交易员没有预先确定的SL,他们坐在那里,观察和希望。他们不能承认他们的超级水平没有得到尊重。所以,他们坐着等待奇迹的发生。像这样的交易很少能带来奇迹。在大多数情况下,这样的交易最终会以灾难收场。
#6 Not using Stop-loss
#6不使用止损
Not having a SL means that you can’t control the risk of your trades. Risk control is essential in money management and in profitable trading. Not having a SL means that with every trade you place, you potentially lose your account. This can’t even be considered a serious trading. Yet, some people still do it. Seriously, not using SL is probably the dumbest thing you can do in trading.
没有SL意味着你无法控制交易的风险。在资金管理和有利可图的交易中,风险控制至关重要。没有SL意味着每一笔交易,你都有可能失去你的账户。这甚至不能被认为是严肃的交易。然而,有些人仍然这样做。说真的,不使用SL可能是你在交易中能做的最愚蠢的事情。
Some people say that they have a “mental SL” which means that when the price hits a certain level, they will manually close their position. Most of those people won‘t be able to admit they were wrong and they won’t close the trade when the time comes. Or they will be sooner or later surprised by unexpected spike move against their position. The worst case that can happen is some totally unexpected bank intervention, natural disaster or significant political move which will wipe their account clean in few seconds before they even notice that something is going on.
有些人说,他们有一个“心理SL”,这意味着当价格达到一定的水平,他们将手动关闭他们的立场。这些人中的大多数不会承认自己错了,到时候他们也不会结束交易。或者他们迟早会因为意外的价格波动而大吃一惊。可能发生的最坏情况是某些完全出乎意料的银行干预、自然灾害或重大政治举措,这些举措将在他们甚至注意到有事情正在发生之前的几秒钟内抹去他们的账户。
#7 Entering a position without a plan
#7没有计划地进入一个头寸
When you open a position only because of your gut feeling or if you open it on the spur of the moment, you are entering a position without a plan. Every trade must be carefully planned. You need to know where your PT and SL is going to be, you need to have a strict position management and you also need to stick to your money management. Benjamin Franklin once said: “By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.“ Quite fitting, don’t you think?
当你只是因为直觉或者一时冲动才开始一个头寸的时候,你是在没有计划的情况下进入这个仓位。每笔交易都必须仔细计划。你需要知道你的PT和SL会在哪里,你需要有一个严格的位置管理,你还需要坚持你的资金管理。本杰明·富兰克林曾经说过:没有准备,你就是在准备失败。”“非常合适,你不觉得吗?
Novice traders often enter their positions without a plan when there is fast price movement. This occurs often after the macro news. Those traders see that the price is moving in one direction fast and they feel an urge to make some quick and easy money from the rapid movement. What usually happens is that the price turns and they take a SL or they are stuck in a trade which they have no clue what to do with.
当价格快速变动时,新手交易者通常没有任何计划就进入他们的头寸。这通常发生在宏观新闻之后。这些交易员看到价格正快速朝一个方向移动,他们有一种从快速移动中快速轻松赚钱的冲动。通常发生的情况是,价格变化,他们采取了一个SL或他们陷入交易,他们不知道该怎么做。
#8 Following other people’s ideas blindly
8盲目地追随别人的想法
It is a good decision to learn from somebody more experienced, to let them lead you and teach you. Actually, it is probably the best way to learn to trade. However, there are countless inexperienced people publishing their stupid trading ideas all over the internet every day. Probably the most dangerous are broker analysts who publish their trading ideas in daily or weekly emails or on their broker’s websites. Why are they most dangerous? Because people tend to believe those guys. They have all the fancy stuff like big brokerage company, fancy emails,professionally looking photos and professionally looking market analyses. Unfortunately, their only job is to make you trade more. Nothing else. They are employees and the more you trade, the more money their company makes. Their wage isn’t based on how much you make. It is based on how much the brokerage makes.
向更有经验的人学习,让他们引导你,教导你,这是一个很好的决定。实际上,这可能是学习交易的最好方法。然而,每天都有无数没有经验的人在互联网上发表他们愚蠢的交易想法。最危险的可能是经纪分析师,他们每天或每周通过电子邮件或在经纪公司网站上公布自己的交易想法。为什么它们是最危险的?因为人们倾向于相信那些家伙。他们有各种奇特的东西比如大经纪公司奇特的电子邮件,专业的照片和专业的市场分析。不幸的是,他们唯一的工作就是让你交易更多。没有别的了。他们是雇员,你交易的越多,他们的公司赚的钱就越多。他们的工资并不取决于你挣多少。它取决于经纪公司的收入。
If you decide to follow someone’s trading idea, then make sure you understand the idea, the logic, and concept behind it and that you too made your analysis and you believe in that idea. Also, make sure you know all the aspects you need to know before entering the trade. You need to know your PT and SL, and you also need to know how you will manage your position before you actually enter the trade.
如果你决定跟随某人的交易想法,那么确保你理解其背后的想法、逻辑和概念,而且你也做出了自己的分析,并且你相信这个想法。此外,确保你知道所有的方面,你需要知道进入贸易。你需要知道你的PT和SL,你也需要知道在你真正进入交易之前你将如何管理你的位置。
#9 Jumping from strategy to strategy
9 从战略跳到战略
I have already mentioned it before – jumping from strategy to strategy without really giving it any chance, time and patience won’t lead you to a magic strategy. It will only lead you to losses and to frustration.
我之前已经提到过—从一个战略跳到另一个战略而不给它任何机会,时间和耐心不会让你得到一个神奇的战略。它只会让你失败和沮丧。
You need to put a lot of work and patience into any strategy before you understand it and before you start trading it successfully. There isn’t any magic formula, that leads to quick profits. As in everything else in life, mastering a strategy takes time, patience and hard work.
你需要投入大量的工作和耐心在任何战略之前,你理解它,在你开始成功地交易它。没有任何神奇的公式,可以带来快速的利润。就像生活中的其他事情一样,掌握一个策略需要时间、耐心和努力。
#10 Sticking with a bad broker
10.坚持跟坏经纪人在一起
So many traders stick with their old broker just because they are used to trading with them and because they are too lazy to create a new account and transfer their money elsewhere.
因此,许多交易员坚持使用他们原来的经纪人,仅仅是因为他们习惯于与他们交易,而且因为他们太懒于创建一个新账户并将资金转移到其他地方。
They also don’t realize the big difference broker can have on their trading results. They think that half a pip now and then isn’t that significant, or that a small few pip slippage from time to time is also okay. In fact, it makes a HUGE difference and a few pip slippage is not okay. It happened so many times that because of my tight spreads, I was able to bank a profit where others took a Stop-loss. This happens more often than you think and it makes a huge difference in your trading results.
他们也没有意识到经纪人对他们的交易结果有很大的影响。他们认为偶尔半个点子没什么大不了的,或者偶尔一点点小小的下滑也是可以的。事实上,这是一个巨大的差异和几点点滑动是不好的。事情就是这样,很多时候,由于我的利差很小,我能够在其他人止损的情况下获得利润。这种情况发生的频率比你想象的要高,而且它会给你的交易结果带来巨大的不同。
Switching from a bad broker to a good broker can be a matter of turning constant losing into a consistent winning! I can’t really stress that enough. Having a good broker is one of the most important things in your trading.
从一个糟糕的经纪人转变成一个好的经纪人可能是一个把持续的损失变成持续的获利的问题!这一点我再怎么强调也不过分。拥有一个好的经纪人是你交易中最重要的事情之一。
If you trade intraday trades with a broker that has 2-3 pip spread on major pairs, I don’t think you can be profitable – not with such a broker.
如果你在日内交易中与一个主要交易对的利差为2-3点的经纪人交易,我认为你不会有利可图——与这样的经纪人交易不会有利可图。